I Coulda Been an Expert

Long time no post. I was in the running for a couple of analyst jobs at a fantasy baseball site (one of the links on the right side over there). Based on that, and this here blog, I took over an orphan Experts' League team. My preliminary diagnosis tells me I need some better starting pitching, but I like my offense and bullpen. Also most of the ultra-top prospects were not available, so I've got some more interesting 2nd tier guys.

Anyway, I will have to write more words and more frequently in order to retain my position as BWB "Expert." All I have now to qualify me is my strange 3-time champion team (Nokomis) in the Longball League. The team squeaks out the division title every year (five in a row now!), then goes all the way on rotation strength. So, if I could offer any advice based on this, it would be: get five aces! I actually tried this strategy in the Four Star League this year, but only got four real ones (Greinke, Carpenter, Verlander, Gallardo). I'm interested to watch that team this year, as my offense is....full of potential.

I'll be heading to Arizona today, visiting my parents, but also trying to take in as many Cactus League games as possible. I am looking forward to my first ever spring training experience, even if it's not the Twins. As one of the professional positions I unsuccessfully applied for involved projecting playing time down to 5% increments for the Royals, I am now looking forward to seeing Manny Pina and Tim Hamulack in action!

Projected 2010 Designated Hitters and Their Benchwarmer Salaries

These guys can slip through the cracks, although they will show up in BWB under their qualifying positions (if they have one). In the interest of trying to make my depth charts correspond to a team's real starters though, they will be kept here. In Benchwarmer, obviously the DH can be anyone, and is basically also the top bench spot, as they will be the first to substitute for a hitter in the lineup who has missed a game.

A very happy update day as well, as I was able to replace Nick Punto with Orlando Hudson as the Twins' starting 2B. Don't forget February 12 is Blog About Nick Punto Day, or so I've read...

Team	Starter	2010 Salary	Career OPS	2009 OPS	Bang	Qual Pos
Tex	Vladimir Guerrero	2248	954	794	.424377	OF
Bos	David Ortiz	3601	922	794	.256040	1B
Cle	Travis Hafner	1148	913	826	.795296	DH only
Sea	Ken Griffey Jr.	1437	912	735	.634656	OF
LAA	Hideki Matsui	1885	852	876	.451989	DH only
NYY	Nick Johnson	1322	849	831	.642209	1B
Bal	Luke Scott	1627	844	828	.518746	1B, OF
TB	Pat Burrell	1776	838	682	.471847	OF
Oak	Jack Cust	2455	829	773	.337678	OF
ChW	Andruw Jones	1073	826	782	.769804	OF, 1B
Min	Jason Kubel	2241	813	907	.362784	OF
Det	Carlos Guillen	1219	805	757	.660377	OF
KC	Jose Guillen	1485	764	681	.514478	OF
Tor	Jose Bautista	1015	729	757	.718227	3B, OF

Projected 2010 Starting Outfielders and Their Benchwarmer Salaries

Benchwarmer doesn't distinguish between left, center, rightfielders, you just need three of 'em. So they are combined on this list. I assigned just one player per team at each starting position, and identified them as such.

All positional depth charts should now be as up to date as as possible. Feel free to leave a comment somewhere if I've missed something.

updated 3/20/10: New DET OF

*Note: Jason Heyward (big secret here) has no MLB AB, in MiLB: lifetime 899 OPS, 2009 963 OPS
* Austin Jackson: no MLB AB, in MiLB: lifetime 766 OPS, 2009 759 OPS

Team	Starter	2010 Salary	Career OPS	2009 OPS	Bang	Other Pos
LAD-LF	Manny Ramirez	2846	1002	949	.352073
Mil-LF	Ryan Braun	6471	937	937	.144800
StL-LF	Matt Holliday	5498	933	909	.169698
NYM-LF	Jason Bay	5444	896	921	.164585
LAA-RF	Bobby Abreu	4786	896	825	.187213
Bos-RF	J.D. Drew	1876	896	914	.477612
Det-RF	Magglio Ordonez	2694	884	804	.328137
Cle-RF	Shin-Soo Choo	2891	877	883	.303355
Col-RF	Brad Hawpe	2312	875	903	.378460
Pit-RF	Garrett Jones	699	872	938	1.247496	1B
SD-LF	Kyle Blanks	203	868	868	4.275862	1B
Tex-RF	Josh Hamilton	2203	864	741	.392192
NYM-CF	Carlos Beltran	2611	856	915	.327844
LAD-RF	Andre Ethier	4294	853	869	.198649
Cle-CF	Grady Sizemore	3033	851	799	.280580
Fla-LF	Chris Coghlan	1330	850	850	.639098
Hou-LF	Carlos Lee	3618	847	831	.234107
ChW-LF	Carlos Quentin	1470	840	779	.571429
Was-LF	Josh Willingham	1519	840	863	.552995
Bal-RF	Nick Markakis	4634	838	801	.180837
Ari-RF	Justin Upton	1939	836	899	.431150
ChC-LF	Alfonso Soriano	2020	836	726	.413861
Pit-CF	Andrew McCutchen	1105	836	836	.756561
StL-RF	Ryan Ludwick	2224	833	776	.374550
Tor-LF	Adam Lind	3964	833	932	.210141
Bal-LF	Nolan Reimold	753	831	831	1.103586
NYY-CF	Curtis Granderson	3747	828	780	.220977
Hou-RF	Hunter Pence	3074	828	818	.269356
Phi-RF	Jason Werth	3406	827	879	.242807
Phi-LF	Raul Ibanez	3286	826	899	.251369
LAD-CF	Matt Kemp	4687	826	842	.176232
Cin-LF	Chris Dickerson	335	823	743	2.456716
Sea-LF	Milton Bradley	1320	821	775	.621970
NYY-RF	Nick Swisher	2262	818	869	.361627	1B
Min-CF	Denard Span	2609	812	807	.311230
Sea-RF	Ichiro Suzuki	4987	811	851	.162623
Fla-RF	Cody Ross	1990	807	790	.405528
LAA-LF	Juan Rivera	1701	802	810	.471487
Min-RF	Michael Cuddyer	3212	801	862	.249377	1B
LAA-CF	Torii Hunter	2905	801	873	.275731
Tor-CF	Vernon Wells	2908	799	711	.274759
Atl-CF	Nate McLouth	2529	796	799	.314749
Mil-RF	Corey Hart	1866	795	753	.426045
Det-LF	Johnny Damon	3720	794	854	.213441
Tex-LF	Nelson Cruz	1399	794	856	.567548
Ari-LF	Conor Jackson	761	792	516	1.040736	1B
Tex-CF	Julio Borbon	213	790	790	3.708920
SF-CF	Aaron Rowand	1950	788	738	.404103
Bos-CF	Mike Cameron	2630	788	795	.299620
KC-RF	David DeJesus	2759	782	781	.283436
ChW-RF	Alex Rios	3111	775	691	.249116
Phi-CF	Shane Victorino	3705	774	803	.208907
TB-LF	Carl Crawford	3325	772	816	.232180
Was-RF	Elijah Dukes	871	771	729	.885189
Cin-RF	Jay Bruce	997	769	773	.771314
ChC-RF	Kosuke Fukodome	1586	767	796	.483607
SF-LF	Mark DeRosa	2108	767	696	.363852	3B, 1B
Bos-LF	Jacoby Ellsbury	2878	764	770	.265462
KC-CF	Rick Ankiel	1000	763	672	.763000
TB-CF	B.J. Upton	2496	762	686	.305288
Cin-CF	Drew Stubbs	228	762	762	3.342105
ChC-CF	Marlon Byrd	1985	762	808	.383879
Tor-RF	Travis Snider	325	760	748	2.338462
SD-CF	Scott Hairston	1151	758	763	.658558
TB-RF	Gabe Kapler	330	757	768	2.293939
SD-RF	Will Venable	527	754	763	1.430740
Was-CF	Nyjer Morgan	1066	754	757	.707317
Col-LF	Carlos Gonzalez	660	752	878	1.139394
Col-CF	Dexter Fowler	902	746	770	.827051
Ari-CF	Chris B. Young	1813	745	711	.410921
NYM-RF	Jeff Francoeur	3109	743	732	.238984
Oak-CF	Coco Crisp	623	738	714	1.184591
Min-LF	Delmon Young	1756	738	733	.420273
Sea-CF	Franklin Gutierrez	2354	736	764	.312659
Bal-CF	Adam Jones	1710	735	792	.429825
SF-RF	Nate Schierholtz	451	731	702	1.620843
Oak-RF	Ryan Sweeney	1341	728	755	.542878
Pit-LF	Lastings Milledge	677	727	696	1.073855
Fla-CF	Cameron Maybin	213	726	727	3.408451
Oak-LF	Rajai Davis	958	724	784	.755741
KC-LF	Scott Podsednik	1383	720	764	.520607
ChW-CF	Juan Pierre	1278	720	757	.563380
Atl-LF	Melky Cabrera	1555	716	752	.460450
StL-CF	Colby Rasmus	1050	714	714	.680000
Cle-LF	Michael Brantley	131	707	707	5.396947
NYY-LF	Brett Gardner	355	677	724	1.907042
Hou-CF	Michael Bourn	2191	676	738	.308535
Mil-CF	Carlos Gomez	1059	638	623	.602455
Det-CF	Austin Jackson*	100	0	0	.000000
Atl-RF	Jason Heyward*	100	0	0	.000000

Skol Vikings

OK, I've been busy working on my redistribution draft lists (including my new poor little orphaned Experts League team) this week, but I did update a couple depth charts today, based on free agent signings. I'm working on the all-encompassing outfielders list too, which will be posted soon.

In the meantime, here is a quick minute of the Immigrant Song at the Dome, to get you pumped up for the Vikes' impending victory over the hated Cowboys on Sunday:

Projected 2010 Starting Third Basemen and Their Benchwarmer Salaries

A bit of a motley crew. The first top dog who looks like a bargain, a lot of older guys on the way down, enigmas wrapped in riddles, and a zombie new guy in Oakland.

Updated 3/20/10 - Cantu sticking at 3B? Chone moves J Lopez, for now

*Note: Polanco, Tejeda and J Lopez are penciled in as their team's starting 3B, but will not qualify in BWB until they play 5 consecutive or 10 total games at 3B in 2010.

Team	Starter	2010 Salary	Career OPS	2009 OPS	Bang	Other Pos
NYY	Alex Rodriguez	4096	965	933	.235596
Atl	Chipper Jones	2354	947	818	.402294
SF	Pablo Sandoval	3286	924	943	.312659	1B
NYM	David Wright	4866	907	837	.186395
TB	Evan Longoria	4102	883	889	.215261
Cin	Scott Rolen	1731	868	766	.501444
ChC	Aramis Ramirez	2262	847	902	.374447
Ari	Mark Reynolds	3875	839	892	.216516	1B
StL	David Freese	100	837	837	8.370000	C, 1B
Mil	Casey McGehee	917	829	859	.904035	2B
Was	Ryan Zimmerman	4529	825	888	.182159
Bal	Miguel Tejada*	3938	810	798	.205688	SS
Tex	Michael Young	3281	798	892	.243219
Tor	Edwin Encarnacion	1071	790	729	.737628
LAD	Casey Blake	2202	788	832	.357856
Col	Ian Stewart	1194	783	785	.655779	2B, OF
Fla	Jorge Cantu	3341	780	788	.233463	1B
Bos	Adrian Beltre	2014	779	683	.386792
Phi	Placido Polanco*	3422	761	727	.222385	2B
Cle	Jhonny Peralta	3044	756	690	.248357	SS
ChW	Mark Teahen	1888	749	734	.396716	OF, 1B
KC	Alex Gordon	697	746	703	1.070301
Oak	Kevin Kouzmanoff	2076	743	722	.357900
SD	Chase Headley	1793	740	734	.412716	OF
Min	Brendan Harris	1104	720	672	.652174	SS, 2B
Hou	Pedro Feliz	2386	715	694	.299665
Sea	Jose C. Lopez*	3488	715	766	.204989	2B, 1B
Det	Brandon Inge	2301	699	720	.303781
Pit	Andy LaRoche	1250	666	731	.532800
LAA	Brandon Wood	120	535	559	4.458333	1B, SS

Randy Johnson @ Wrigley Field

Cheers to an incredible career.

Projected 2010 Starting Shortstops and Their Benchwarmer Salaries

Once again, one man stands alone at the top. Undoubtedly Desmond isn't as good as that number, but the salary means he is risk free. Noticing a few of the bigger gaps between career OPS and 2009 OPS leads to some questions: Was Jason Bartlett just lucky last year, or is he on the way up? J.J. Hardy: overmatched, or ready to rebound?

Updated 2/6/10 - Guzzie back at SS in Was, O-Cab takes over in Cin

Team	Starter	2010 Salary	Career OPS	2009 OPS	Bang	Other Pos
Fla	Hanley Ramirez	6604	917	954	.138855
NYY	Derek Jeter	5686	847	871	.148962
Col	Troy Tulowitzki	4000	831	930	.207750
Atl	Yunel Escobar	2025	801	812	.395556
NYM	Jose Reyes	1827	772	750	.422551
Ari	Stephen Drew	2330	771	748	.330901
Phi	Jimmy Rollins	4600	768	719	.166957
Cle	Asdrubal Cabrera	1661	766	799	.461168	2B
LAD	Rafael Furcal	2263	758	711	.334954
ChW	Alexei Ramirez	1726	755	723	.437428
Min	J.J. Hardy	1735	751	659	.432853
SF	Edgar Renteria	1452	746	635	.513774
TB	Jason Bartlett	1928	744	879	.385892
ChC	Ryan Theriot	2537	726	712	.286165
Hou	Jeff Keppinger	753	723	707	.960159	2B, 3B
Bos	Marco Scutaro	2609	721	789	.276351
Cin	Orlando Cabrera	3655	719	705	.196717
Oak	Clifton Pennington	271	719	760	2.653137
Mil	Alcides Escobar	147	710	701	4.829932
LAA	Erick Aybar	1465	707	776	.482594
StL	Brendan Ryan	806	706	740	.875931	2B
SD	Everth Cabrera	672	703	703	1.046131
Tex	Elvis Andrus	995	702	702	.705528
Was	Cristian Guzman	1882	693	696	.368225
KC	Yuniesky Betancourt	1373	689	639	.501821
Tor	Alex L. Gonzalez	779	689	769	.884467
Sea	Jack Wilson	907	684	654	.754135
Det	Adam A. Everett	654	648	613	.990826
Bal	Cesar Izturis	820	629	622	.767073
Pit	Ronny Cedeno	596	626	701	1.050336	2B, OF